2024-12-14 10:13:08
According to CITIC Securities, it is necessary for deficit ratio to rise to nearly 4%, and mortgage interest rates is expected to fall further. According to Yicai, the Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing on December 11th and 12th. Regarding what it means to change the tone of fiscal policy from "positive" to "more positive", the chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly said that I think it means that the whole fiscal policy will be further expanded next year. First of all, from the perspective of deficit ratio, our deficit ratio is 3% this year and 3% at the beginning of last year. However, we had a special budget adjustment at the end of last year, so the deficit ratio from the end of last year to the end of last year was actually 3.8%. Looking forward to next year, we think that the ratio that may be close to 4% should be the effect that everyone expects to achieve at present. In terms of monetary policy, we can see a series of monetary policies, including further relaxing some restrictions on purchase restriction and loan restriction, including the down payment ratio, and a particularly important one is to reduce the mortgage interest rates. I think these monetary policies will be further promoted in the future, and even further declined in mortgage interest rates, for example.Canadian officials: Considering limiting electricity to the United States to deal with the threat of US tariffs, Governor Doug Ford of Ontario, Canada, said on the 12 th that Ontario is considering limiting the supply of electricity to the United States as the ultimate means to deal with the threat of US President-elect Trump to impose tariffs on Canada. Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau held a meeting with provincial and regional officials on the 11th to discuss how to deal with the Trump tariff threat. According to local media reports, Ford said after the meeting that Ontario is preparing a list of retaliatory measures, including restricting the export of electricity to the United States. (Xinhua News Agency)South Korea's South Gyeonggi Police Department was detained and searched. The South Korean police responsible for investigating the martial law storm said on the 13th that it was detaining and searching the South Gyeonggi Police Department. According to Yonhap News Agency and other media reports, the special investigation team of the National Investigation Headquarters under the South Korean Police Department sent investigators to the South Gyeonggi Police Department on the same day to detain and search the director's office and obtain computer and business information. The report said that after the martial law was announced on the evening of the 3rd, the southern police department of Gyeonggi deployed police to the building of the Central Election Management Committee in Guochuan City, Gyeonggi Province and the election training institute in Suwon City, Gyeonggi Province.
On December 11th, the reporter was informed that Vanke Property innovatively launched the "flexible pricing" model at the press conference of Wanwuyun Ruijian held in Shenzhen, and released "smart selection" products, returned the service options and pricing rights to the owners, and innovatively launched "flexible pricing" in the industry. Specifically, Vanke Property's "Smart Choice" products take "the whole cycle of project property services" as the main axis, forming a set of all kinds of services, in which 158 required services and 350 optional services are classified and screened out. At present, Vanke Property is pushing the industry to change from standardized pricing to flexible pricing. Kerry Property Management believes that this initiative has led the transformation and upgrading of property services in the stock era, and is expected to become the standard practice of the property management industry in the future, and promote the development of the whole industry in a more standardized and efficient direction. (Dahe Finance Cube)Ye Fan, Southwest Securities: In 2025, the upward trend of domestic economy will continue, and it is estimated that the annual RRR will be lowered by about 100bp. The Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. Ye Fan, chief economist of Southwest Securities, said that in 2025, the domestic economy will continue to stabilize and upward under the policy. From the structural point of view, infrastructure and manufacturing investment are expected to remain the main support items for domestic investment next year, and the decline in real estate investment will gradually narrow; Domestic demand is expected to play a stronger role in stimulating the economy than external demand, and domestic residents' consumption is expected to continue to pick up under the policy. Regarding the direction of fiscal and monetary policies, Ye Fan predicted that the issuance scale of ultra-long-term special government bonds will be around 1.5 trillion -2 trillion yuan in 2025, and it will continue to support the "dual" areas. In the first half of next year or the peak of government bond issuance, there may be a RRR cut for hedging. It is estimated that the RRR cut will be about 100bp for the whole year, and the interest rate cut will be decided by camera. The interest rate cut of 25bp-40bp may be promoted step by step.According to sources, Trump will meet with the widow of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Sunday.
Guangdong: In the next five years, 10 billion yuan will be invested to support the development of the tourism industry. On December 12th, a site meeting was held to promote the implementation of the spirit of the provincial tourism development conference in Guangdong. The meeting proposed to promote the implementation of the "three hundred" plan for cultural tourism investment, that is, to promote 100 major projects under construction and 100 key investment projects, to coordinate provincial financial investment of 10 billion yuan to support the development of tourism industry in the next five years, and to accelerate the implementation of the list of 100 major projects under construction and 100 key investment projects.Midea Group increased its capital to 7.66 billion yuan. According to Tianyancha App, Midea Group (000333) has undergone industrial and commercial changes, and its registered capital has increased from about 6.98 billion yuan to about 7.66 billion yuan. Midea Group Co., Ltd. was established in April 2000, and its legal representative is Fang Hongbo. Its business scope includes the production and operation of household appliances, motors and their parts, etc. Midea Holdings Limited, Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company Limited and China Securities Finance Co., Ltd. jointly hold shares.CICC: Depleting inventories to eliminate excess supply is still the main direction. The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. In terms of real estate, the meeting will "continue to push the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize" as the primary task of risk prevention. The research department of CICC believes that destocking to eliminate excess supply is still the main direction. First, control the supply of new land; second, optimize the supply structure of existing land and commercial housing; it is expected that the supply optimization policies such as land ticket, land exchange and commercial housing reform will be further promoted; third, dispose of existing commercial housing; it is expected that the efforts to store unsold commercial housing and existing second-hand housing for affordable housing will be increased; fourth, intensify the implementation of the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated houses.
Strategy guide 12-14
Strategy guide
12-14
Strategy guide 12-14
Strategy guide 12-14
Strategy guide 12-14